2020 Foresight Challenge

The three 2020 winners of the Kautz-Uible Economics Institute's Foresight Challenge—Nitya Nigam (Symbiosis International), Johnathan Stefanick (University of Cincinnati), and Luke Grothaus (University of Cincinnati)—share their experience, insights, and advice.

About the Foresight Challenge

Warren Bennis, former President at the University of Cincinnati and considered to be the father of leadership wrote “leaders require foresight, so they can judge how the vision fits into the way the environment of the organization may evolve.” The COVID-19 crisis has made it clear that we need leaders who possess foresight in order to make good decisions for society.

To develop this skill of foresight, the Kautz-Uible Economics Institute is sponsoring the Foresight Challenge for the 2020 fall semester. Any current student at a university around the world is eligible to compete. Students from the University of Cincinnati are particularly encouraged to participate.

The KU Economics Institute would like to thank UC Digital Futures for their sponsorship of this event.

https://ucurbanfutures.com/

Participants in the foresight challenge must create an account at the superforecasting platform, Good Judgment Open.  Once an account has been created, contestants must provide a forecast for the 15 topics below that relate to issues of the economy, politics, and society more broadly. The winner of the foresight challenge will be the individual with the lowest cumulative Brier Score on the 15 questions below. A contestant who does not answer one of the 15 questions will receive the worst possible Brier Score of 2 for that question. More details about Brier Score calculations are available here

Individuals who want to participate should register using the form at the bottom of the page. Financial awards are available for both UC undergraduate and UC graduate winners, as well as the overall winner of the challenge. If you have any questions, please email Michael Jones at m.jones@uc.edu.

  1. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1681-on-1-september-2020-how-many-states-will-report-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0

  2. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1576-what-will-be-the-unemployment-rate-in-australia-for-august-2020

  3. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1617-what-will-be-the-total-domestic-box-office-gross-for-tenet-as-of-8-september-2020-according-to-box-office-mojo

  4. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1606-at-close-of-business-on-16-september-2020-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-29-july-2020

  5. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1675-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-september-2020-relative-to-its-closing-value-on-30-june-2020

  6. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1607-before-1-october-2020-will-north-korea-announce-that-it-has-a-new-head-of-state

  7. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1516-will-the-team-winning-the-2020-national-basketball-association-championship-be-a-first-time-champion

  8. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1588-what-will-be-the-u-s-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-october-2020

  9. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1730-when-will-microsoft-announce-a-deal-for-its-acquisition-of-tiktok-in-the-u-s

  10. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1716-when-will-the-eu-add-the-u-s-to-its-list-of-countries-for-which-member-states-should-gradually-lift-travel-restrictions

  11. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1496-who-will-win-the-2020-united-states-presidential-election

  12. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1641-which-presidential-candidate-will-win-ohio

  13. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1656-at-close-of-business-on-5-november-2020-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-september-2020

  14. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1637-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-u-s-dollar-against-the-chinese-yuan-on-13-november-2020

  15. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1622-between-15-may-2020-and-30-november-2020-will-any-group-iii-u-s-air-carrier-file-for-bankruptcy

For students in Prof. Jones', Economic Data Analysis class, ECON6010, students will also need to provide forecasts for the following questions -