2020 Foresight Challenge

Warren Bennis, former President at the University of Cincinnati and considered to be the father of leadership wrote “leaders require foresight, so they can judge how the vision fits into the way the environment of the organization may evolve.” The COVID-19 crisis has made it clear that we need leaders who possess foresight in order to make good decisions for society.

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To develop this skill of foresight, the Kautz-Uible Economics Institute is sponsoring the Foresight Challenge for the 2020 fall semester. Any current student at a university around the world is eligible to compete. Students from the University of Cincinnati are particularly encouraged to participate.

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The KU Economics Institute would like to thank UC Digital Futures for their sponsorship of this event.

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https://ucurbanfutures.com/

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Participants in the foresight challenge must create an account at the superforecasting platform, Good Judgment Open.  Once an account has been created, contestants must provide a forecast for the 15 topics below that relate to issues of the economy, politics, and society more broadly. The winner of the foresight challenge will be the individual with the lowest cumulative Brier Score on the 15 questions below. A contestant who does not answer one of the 15 questions will receive the worst possible Brier Score of 2 for that question. More details about Brier Score calculations are available here

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Individuals who want to participate should register using the form at the bottom of the page. Financial awards are available for both UC undergraduate and UC graduate winners, as well as the overall winner of the challenge. If you have any questions, please email Michael Jones at m.jones@uc.edu.

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1. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1681-on-1-september-2020-how-many-states-will-report-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0

2. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1576-what-will-be-the-unemployment-rate-in-australia-for-august-2020

3. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1617-what-will-be-the-total-domestic-box-office-gross-for-tenet-as-of-8-september-2020-according-to-box-office-mojo

4. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1606-at-close-of-business-on-16-september-2020-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-29-july-2020

5. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1675-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-september-2020-relative-to-its-closing-value-on-30-june-2020

6. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1607-before-1-october-2020-will-north-korea-announce-that-it-has-a-new-head-of-state

7. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1516-will-the-team-winning-the-2020-national-basketball-association-championship-be-a-first-time-champion

8. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1588-what-will-be-the-u-s-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-october-2020

9. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1730-when-will-microsoft-announce-a-deal-for-its-acquisition-of-tiktok-in-the-u-s

10. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1716-when-will-the-eu-add-the-u-s-to-its-list-of-countries-for-which-member-states-should-gradually-lift-travel-restrictions

11. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1496-who-will-win-the-2020-united-states-presidential-election

12. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1641-which-presidential-candidate-will-win-ohio

13. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1656-at-close-of-business-on-5-november-2020-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-september-2020

14. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1637-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-u-s-dollar-against-the-chinese-yuan-on-13-november-2020

15. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1622-between-15-may-2020-and-30-november-2020-will-any-group-iii-u-s-air-carrier-file-for-bankruptcy

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For students in Prof. Jones', Economic Data Analysis class, ECON6010, students will also need to provide forecasts for the following questions - 

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• https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1631-what-will-be-the-value-of-total-assets-of-the-federal-reserve-as-of-wednesday-30-december-2020

• https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1742-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2020-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world

• https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1672-what-will-u-s-holiday-season-retail-sales-be-for-2020-relative-to-the-2019-holiday-season

• https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1662-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy

• https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1490-before-1-january-2021-will-a-united-states-supreme-court-seat-be-vacated