Warren Bennis, former President at the University of Cincinnati and considered to be the father of leadership, wrote: “Leaders require foresight, so they can judge how the vision fits into the way the environment of the organization may evolve.” The COVID-19 crisis has made it clear that we need leaders who possess foresight in order to make good decisions for society.
To develop this skill of foresight, the Kautz-Uible Economics Institute is sponsoring the Foresight Challenge. Any current student at a university around the world is eligible to compete. Students from the University of Cincinnati are particularly encouraged to participate.
Participants in the Foresight Challenge must create an account on the superforecasting platform, Good Judgment Open. Once an account has been created, contestants will provide a forecast for topics that relate to issues of the economy, politics, and society more broadly. The winner of the Foresight Challenge will be the individual with the lowest cumulative, relative Brier Score. A contestant who does not answer any one of the questions will receive the worst possible Brier Score of 2 for that question. More details about Brier Score calculations are available here.
A financial prize is available for a University of Cincinnati student who is the overall winner of the competition. If you have any questions, please email Michael Jones at email@example.com.
To register for the 2021 Foresight Challenge, please submit the form below.
Registration is now closed.
2021 Foresight Challenge Questions
1. What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?
2. How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?
3. Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?
4. What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?
5. Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court block any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?
6. What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?
7. What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?
8. What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?
9. What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?
10. Which team will win the Major League Baseball World Series in 2021?
11. How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?
12. Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021?
13. What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?
14. What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?
15. How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?
2020 Foresight Challenge Winners
The three winners of the 2020 Kautz-Uible Economics Institute's Foresight Challenge—Nitya Nigam (Symbiosis International), Johnathan Stefanick (University of Cincinnati), and Luke Grothaus (University of Cincinnati)—share their experience, insights, and advice.